滑坡危险度区划理论

近年随着国家西部大开发以及三峡工程的建设，使西部人民的经济水平得到大幅度提高。在开发战略的实施过程中，由于建筑场址的选择不当或开发工程中的盲目施工，对人民的生命财产安全造成极大的危害。如何达成人—地关系的协调，是各国政府和科学家努力追求的目标。正是基于这一点，本文对滑坡危险度区划进行了全面而系统的研究，取得了以下主要结论和成果： (1)滑坡危险度区划理论是一个复杂的系统工程，文章较全面的阐述了该系统：它包括主控因素集的建立、因素的量化、数学模型的建立、危险度等级的确定和危险度区划的成果，对滑坡危险度区划理论的未来发展方向做出了探索性研究。 (2)利用模糊数学理论建立了滑坡危险度区划系统因素集的隶属度函数，使要素集的量化避免因各种失误而造成的不必要的误差，从而使各种因素的量化规范化。 (3)危险度等级的阈值确定是确定滑坡危险度区划工作精度的关键。本论文在研究区研究过程中详细的介绍了危险度等级阈值确定的方法，并对检验区划成果的置信区间作了理论上阐述。 (4)应用模糊综合评判法和因子叠加法，建立了三峡库区开县滑坡危险度区划的数学模型，并利用两种模型对研究区进行了滑坡危险度区划对比，使非线性理论在实践中得到了成功的应用。 (5)利用滑坡危险度区划理论，建立了开县滑坡危险度分区，将研究区划分为高—中—低三个等次的区域，这个成果一方面为开县政府和移民办提供了规划指南，使库区移民工作尽最大限度的在安全的情况下进行，同时在新城区的建设过程中，尽量避免一些由于不合理开发而发生滑坡影响人们生命财产安全的事件发生；另一方面为农业部门提供参考，指导库区人们大众的生产。 (6)地理信息系统技术(GIS)的发展为滑坡危险度区划理论提供了技术手段：GIS强大的空间模拟功能和属性数据管理能力、数字化图件输出功能为滑坡危险度区划的自动化提供了手段。本文以人工智能技术与专家经验为基础，地理信息系统为平台，对GIS支持下的滑坡危险度区划做出了探索性研究。 第11页 西南交通大学博士研究生学位论文 本论文的创新之处在于： （1）在前人研究工作的基础上，更系统的从滑坡危险度区划的因素体系及其量化、数学建模等方面做出了较全面的研究； m将模糊集理论的综合评判方法全面的引入滑坡危险度区划理论中。从因素的量化到综合评判，结论与实际情况比较吻合，说明该方法的引用时比较成功的； （3）将因子叠加法与模糊综合评判法同时应用于研究区滑坡危险度区划，用因于叠加法检验模糊综合评判法的成果，结论是一致的，这为滑坡危险度区划从定性，半定量到定量研究起到了很好的促进作用；
电加热器
With the development of West-China and the construction of Sanxia Project, the people’s economic level improved quickly in West-China. Landslide induced by non-nature was threatening the life and belongs for wrongly field-selected and unreasonable construction in the course of construction. How to deal with the connection with the mankind and the earth in phase is the target of the government and scientist. On the base of all above the paper studied by the numbers landslide hazard zonation, and the research work involves several aspect as follows:1. The theory of landslide hazard zonation is a complex systems engineering, the paper expatiate roundly this system which include how to set up mainly factors and measurable factors and math’s model and confirm the hazard degree and gain the result of hazard zonation, Contemporary the paper do exploring some research work for the develop direction.2. Subject function of systemic factors about landslide hazard zonation was set up by using Fuzzy math theory, and did best to avoid unwanted error by any wrong thing in the course of numbering factors, thereby cause standardization to number factors.3. How to decide the threshold value of hazard zonation is the keys, which can be, divide the precision of landslide hazard zonation research. The paper introduce detailed the method to decide the threshold value, and set forth the method to test the believing interborough of division result in theory.4.Appling Fuzzy math theory and factors added method we set up landslide hazard zonation math model in Kaixian county Sanxia region, and compare two hazard zonation result with these two model ,to make non-linearity theory applied successfully to realistic condition.5. Applying landslide hazard zonation theory we set up landslide hazard zonation of Kaixian County, and divided the studying area into three grades, which were highly hazard zonation and middling zonation and lowly zonation. The result can be provided to local government to instruct manufacture, and made any thing carried safety. Also during the instruction of new city zone can be avoided landslide hazard induced by unreasonable empolder, On the other hand the resultcan be used to provide reference for agriculture branch to instruct the people to work.6. The development of GIS provided landslide hazard zonation theory with technique means: GIS has powerful space simulative function and managing capably of attributively data and printing digital map that provide tools for realizing roboticized of landslide hazard zonation. Applying AI and GIS the paper studied systemically landslide hazard zonation on the base of GIS. The paper involves several innovations as follows:1 .On the base of former study work the paper research systemically factor system and the method to number these index and math model of landslide hazard zonation.2.Fuzzy math was introduced whole from numbering factor to judge synthetically into the theory of landslide hazard zonation, the result is similar to the fact. So applying the math method was successful.3.Both factor-added method and fuzzy judge method synthetically were applied to landslide hazard zonation of studying area, and the result of fuzzy math was proved by factor-added method, and the conclusion is accordant that promoted the research of landslide hazard zonation from qualitative analysis and half-quantitative analysis to quantitative analysis.