传统的滑坡分析方法

传统的滑坡分析方法,如极限平衡法、数值分析法、工程类比法等以及近年来兴起的计算智能分析方法虽然在滑坡研究取得了一定的成绩,也一定程度减轻了滑坡对人类带来的损失,但滑坡因为其影响因子的随机性、不确定性及滑坡滑移过程的非线性决定了其预报的极度困难,被科学界公认为尖端课题之一。因此,本论文作为“十五”重点攻关课题“库区地质灾害监测、预警及辅助决策支持系统关键技术研究与示范”(2001BA604A02)的后续研究,仍以滑坡稳定性分析及灾变预测问题为研究对象,首次将元胞自动机这种研究非线性系统的动力学模型引入到滑坡的研究中,研究了元胞自动机模拟滑坡的理论和方法,建立了CA-Landslide模型,结合地理信息系统(GIS)技术,集成了新的基于GIS的滑坡灾变预测智能集成系统,并在万州区铁峰乡滑坡上作了实例分析,完成的研究工作及取得的主要进展如下:①讨论了元胞自动机的基本原理、构成和一般特征,并重点研究了用它模拟滑坡的基本方法,以及对滑坡岩体物理力学性质和应力的模拟,在此基础上建立CA-Landslide模型。②详细研究了滑坡演化过程中的非线性规律,主要是分形规律和自组织临界特征,并研究了这些规律与滑坡演化过程之间的内部联系。③根据传统滑坡稳定性分析安全系数的思想,引入损伤当量这个新的物理量,研究损伤当量与滑坡分维数之间的关系,从而建立起CA-Landslide模型的稳定性判断依据。④在GIS基本功能、数据结构分析的基础上,研究了基于ArcView GIS 3.2的滑坡预报GIS综合信息模型的构建方法与程序,研究了建立滑坡综合信息数据库,并对建立时空数据模型做了初步的探讨。⑤详细研究了元胞自动机与GIS集成的必要性、可能性及集成方式。根据CA-Landslide模型的特点,选定集成方案,并采用ArcView的二次开发语言Avenue及Visual Basic混合编程,将CA-Landslide模型集成到“滑坡灾变智能预测系统”中。⑥以万州铁峰乡滑坡为例,探讨了GIS支持下CA-Landslide模型在三峡库区铁峰滑坡灾变预测分析中的应用,得到的结果与其它方法分析结果比较吻合。本文的研究成果进一步充实和完善了“滑坡灾变智能预测系统”,同时也为滑坡的预测研究提供了一种新的方法和思路。
工业羊毛毡
Traditional methods,such as numerical analysis method, limit equilibrium method, engineering analogy method and forecast of computation intelligence make great progresses in landslide predict and alleviate the disaster. landslide is too complex to be forecasted well and truly because of its stochastic, uncertainty and the nonlinearlity of the process, and it is well known to be one of the most difficult problem.The thesis is a successor of fifteenth project—research and demonstration on the key problem of supervision, pre-warning and decision-making assistance supported system of geology disaster in the Three Gorges of Yangtse Rive (2001BA604A02), which aims at the landslide-forecast, and introduce cellular automata(CA) into the study of landslide firstly.The thesis studies the theory appling CA to simulate landslide and establishes CA-Landslide model. On the basis of GIS, the new intelligent compositive-system on the disaster-changing forecast of landslide is set up. At last, Tiefeng landslide is illustrated to prove the model. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:①The basic principle, constitutes and general characteristics are described. Especially the ways and means to simulate landslide and the behaviors of rock are deeply studied, and CA-Landslide is established finally.②The nonlinear law during the process of landslide including fractal and self-organized critical charaters is particularly studied, and the relationship between the nonlinear law and the landslide is researched.③Based on the thought of safty fator,damage variable is introuduced into landslide study,and the relationship between the damage variable and fractal is analysed.then,the judgement of the CA-Landslide is determind.④The basic method and principle of the geography information system(GIS) is analyzed. The relative key technique and programme, which is used to found the GIS model of the comprehensive information of landslide forecast, are researched on the basisof ArcView GIS 3.2. The spatio-temporal data model is also discussed.⑤The necessarity and possibility of integration of CA and GIS is analysed indetail.In terms of the properties of the CA-Landslide,Avenue combined with Visual are adopted in programme, CA-Landslide is introduced into intelligent compositive-system on the disaster-changing forecast of landslide