降雨诱发型滑坡的工程治理与灾害预测预警方法研究

降雨尤其是大量的降雨或暴雨无疑是触发滑坡的最主要的因素之一,降雨诱发滑坡的机理及相应的评价方法的研究历来是学术界、工程界十分关注,而又难以解决的一个课题。结合国家立项《湖南省株洲市炎帝陵滑坡地质灾害治理工程》及横向课题“炎帝陵滑坡稳定性监测”课题,综合开展了炎帝陵滑坡的工程地质分析、数值分析、监测预测预警分析工作,建立工程上适用的降雨影响边坡稳定性的评价和分析方法体系,主要研究成果如下:(1)详细分析了炎帝陵滑坡的形态特征、滑体特征、滑床特征、滑移带特征,并采用极限平衡法分析其在自重、自重+暴雨、自重+暴雨+地震三种工况下的稳定性,结果表明炎帝陵滑坡是典型的牵引式滑坡,降雨是主要的致滑因素,炎帝陵建设过程的人工开挖是导致该斜坡转化为滑坡的主导因素;(2)根据降雨入渗条件、随时间变化的土体容重、地下水位升降、边坡渗流面位置及抗剪强度变化等,采用逐时分析各阶段的边坡安全系数;分析各因素对滑坡稳定性的影响;(3)针对炎帝陵滑坡的具体地形地貌及滑动情况,设计出以地表监测为主、辅以深部位移监测及地下水监测等多层次、多方法、多仪器的综合监测系统,为预测分析炎帝陵滑坡灾害,以及实施信息化治理提供了可靠的参考依据;(4)针对滑坡演变的非线性,结合炎帝陵滑坡实测资料,开展了非线性滑坡预测研究,分别运用了指数平移法和非线性回归分析相结合的预测方法、基于时间序列相空间重构混沌方法的预测方法,以及联合BP模型和Verhulst模型的Verhulst反函数残差修正模型,得到了较为精确的预测结果。根据预测结果提出的施工建议,及时地调整了施工工序,避免了炎帝陵滑坡灾害的发生。(5)针对炎帝陵的旅游区背景,分析了炎帝陵滑坡应急预案编制框架,指出旅游区应急预案应考虑如何减少灾害事件的发生对旅游区人员的不利影响,灾害应急抢险应尽可能地保护旅游景点,避免或减少景点因灾受损,在善后处理中还应积极考虑园区景点与功能的恢复


工业羊毛毡


Rainfall in particular, a lot of rain or heavy rain triggered the landslide is undoubtedly one of the most important factor, the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides and the corresponding evaluation method has always been academics, engineers are very concerned about, but difficult to resolve an issue. Conjunction with national project "Hunan Zhuzhou Yandi Ling Landslide Control Project" and horizontal issues "Yandi Ling Landslide Monitoring" topic, carried out Yandi Ling landslide comprehensive geological analysis, numerical analysis, monitoring and forecasting analysis, the establishment of project The rainfall on slope stability for the evaluation and analysis methodology, key findings are as follows:(1) Detailed analysis of the Yandi Ling landslide morphology, physical characteristics of sliding, sliding bed characteristics, characteristics of slip bands and using the limit equilibrium analysis of its weight, weight + heavy rain, storm + weight + seismic stability of three types of condition The results show that the Yandi Ling landslide is a typical tractor-landslide, rainfall is the main cause slip factor, Yandi Ling construction process of artificial excavation into the slope leading to the decline of the dominant factor;(2) Infiltration under rainfall conditions, with time bulk density of soil, groundwater movements, slope and shear strength of seepage face position changes, hourly use analysis of various stages of slope safety factor; analysis of various factors on the stability of landslide impact.(3) Yandi Ling landslide for the specific topography and sliding, we design proceed from surface monitoring, supplemented by deep displacement monitoring and groundwater monitoring, multi-layered, multiple methods, multi-instrument integrated monitoring system for the prediction Fenxi Yandi Ling landslide disasters and the implementation of information management to provide a reliable reference; (4) Landslide nonlinear evolution, combined with the measured data Yandi Ling landslide, landslide prediction of nonlinear carried out, respectively, using the index shift method and nonlinear regression analysis of the prediction method, based on time series phase space reconstruction method of forecasting methods, and joint BP model and the inverse function Verhulst Verhulst model residual correction model, get a more accurate prediction. According to forecast the results of the construction proposals, timely adjustment of the construction process, to avoid the Yandi Ling landslide disasters.(5)According to the background of Yandiling as a tourist place, the frame of emergency plan of Yandiling landslide disaster was proposed. It is suggested that the emergency plan for a tourist place should pay attention to the methods in reducing the bad influence of disaster on the tourist persons, and it should devote to protecting the scape in the period of rush emergency and considering the recovering of the function of tourist place and its scape